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What Will Eventually Wobble The Stock Market? - Seeking Alpha

I asked my Vice President at Pacific Park Financial if he thought that anything might wobble the stock market. Rob said, "Extra-terrestrials could invade the planet. That MIGHT send the Dow down 0.4% for a few hours in the middle of the day."

"I disagree," I counter-punched. "If outer space beings visit Earth, they will share secrets on how to travel faster than the speed of light in exchange for shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)."

"They'll want bitcoin," Rob said matter-of-factly. "Crypto currencies are very rare outside our solar system."

Good humor notwithstanding, the Dow has set more than 40 record highs in 2017. The story is very similar for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Clearly, stocks have maintained strong buying demand ever since the November election.

Prior to the November election, however, the cessation of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion coupled with extremely high...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: What Will Eventually Wobble The Stock Market? - Seeking Alpha

BANK OF AMERICA: One area of the stock market could double in the next 2 years - Markets Insider

China Chinese Stocks InvestorPerhaps this investor in China is smiling because he knows his country's stock market has great upside potential? REUTERS/China Daily

Bank of America Merrill Lynch thinks the hottest area of the global stock market has much higher to climb.

Perhaps surprisingly, it's not the S&P 500, even though the benchmark US index has shown some serious strength, climbing 12% this year.

The bank's analysts are talking about Asian emerging-market equities, which have put the US to shame, surging a whopping 33% over the same period. Based on comparisons to past bull-market stretches, the group has historically risen roughly 230% during expansion periods that last 42 months on average, according to BAML data.

The firm says that Asian EM stocks — which have exploded by 60% since the start of 2016, outperforming global equities by 27% — could continue to thrive until they're faced with a recession or...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: One area of the stock market could double in the next 2 years - Markets Insider

BANK OF AMERICA: One area of the stock market could double in the next 2 years - Markets Insider

China Chinese Stocks InvestorPerhaps this investor in China is smiling because he knows his country's stock market has great upside potential? REUTERS/China Daily

Bank of America Merrill Lynch thinks the hottest area of the global stock market has much higher to climb.

Perhaps surprisingly, it's not the S&P 500, even though the benchmark US index has shown some serious strength, climbing 12% this year.

The bank's analysts are talking about Asian emerging-market equities, which have put the US to shame, surging a whopping 33% over the same period. Based on comparisons to past bull-market stretches, the group has historically risen roughly 230% during expansion periods that last 42 months on average, according to BAML data.

The firm says that Asian EM stocks — which have exploded by 60% since the start of 2016, outperforming global equities by 27% — could continue to thrive until they're faced with a recession or...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: One area of the stock market could double in the next 2 years - Markets Insider

BANK OF AMERICA: One area of the stock market could double in the next 2 years - Markets Insider

China Chinese Stocks InvestorPerhaps this investor in China is smiling because he knows his country's stock market has great upside potential? REUTERS/China Daily

Bank of America Merrill Lynch thinks the hottest area of the global stock market has much higher to climb.

Perhaps surprisingly, it's not the S&P 500, even though the benchmark US index has shown some serious strength, climbing 12% this year.

The bank's analysts are talking about Asian emerging-market equities, which have put the US to shame, surging a whopping 33% over the same period. Based on comparisons to past bull-market stretches, the group has historically risen roughly 230% during expansion periods that last 42 months on average, according to BAML data.

The firm says that Asian EM stocks — which have exploded by 60% since the start of 2016, outperforming global equities by 27% — could continue to thrive until they're faced with a recession or...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: One area of the stock market could double in the next 2 years - Markets Insider

Opinion: Investors, this is your last warning about the US stock market - MarketWatch

As liquidity dries up in the global financial system, investors need a wake-up call.

I have been running Stock Traders Daily, a proactive financial newsletter offering trading strategies, since the internet bubble in 1999, and I communicate with investors regularly. I’m hearing that investors do not respect the changes in liquidity that are coming.

The U.S.’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking steps to remove a massive amount of liquidity from the financial system for the first time in years. The European Central Bank (ECB) may announce similar moves next month.

Boy who cried wolf

It is hard to fault the average investor because they have heard repeatedly that the market may crash. It is almost like the boy who cried wolf; they have heard it so many times and it never happens, and now they don’t believe it will.

Read: Text of September FOMC statement

During the past five...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Opinion: Investors, this is your last warning about the US stock market - MarketWatch

Opinion: Investors, this is your last warning about the US stock market - MarketWatch

As liquidity dries up in the global financial system, investors need a wake-up call.

I have been running Stock Traders Daily, a proactive financial newsletter offering trading strategies, since the internet bubble in 1999, and I communicate with investors regularly. I’m hearing that investors do not respect the changes in liquidity that are coming.

The U.S.’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking steps to remove a massive amount of liquidity from the financial system for the first time in years. The European Central Bank (ECB) may announce similar moves next month.

Boy who cried wolf

It is hard to fault the average investor because they have heard repeatedly that the market may crash. It is almost like the boy who cried wolf; they have heard it so many times and it never happens, and now they don’t believe it will.

Read: Text of September FOMC statement

During the past five...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Opinion: Investors, this is your last warning about the US stock market - MarketWatch

Opinion: Investors, this is your last warning about the US stock market - MarketWatch

As liquidity dries up in the global financial system, investors need a wake-up call.

I have been running Stock Traders Daily, a proactive financial newsletter offering trading strategies, since the internet bubble in 1999, and I communicate with investors regularly. I’m hearing that investors do not respect the changes in liquidity that are coming.

The U.S.’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking steps to remove a massive amount of liquidity from the financial system for the first time in years. The European Central Bank (ECB) may announce similar moves next month.

Boy who cried wolf

It is hard to fault the average investor because they have heard repeatedly that the market may crash. It is almost like the boy who cried wolf; they have heard it so many times and it never happens, and now they don’t believe it will.

Read: Text of September FOMC statement

During the past five...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Opinion: Investors, this is your last warning about the US stock market - MarketWatch

Opinion: The US stock market looks like it did before most of the previous 13 bear markets - MarketWatch

NEW HAVEN, Conn. (Project Syndicate) — The U.S. stock market today is characterized by a seemingly unusual combination of very high valuations, following a period of strong earnings growth, and very low volatility.

What do these ostensibly conflicting messages imply about the likelihood that the United States is headed toward a bear market in stocks SPX, -0.30% ?

To answer that question, we must look to past bear markets. And that requires us to define precisely what a bear market entails. The media nowadays delineate a “classic” or “traditional” bear market as a 20% decline in stock prices.

That definition does not appear in any media outlet before the 1990s, and there has been no indication of who established it. It may be rooted in the experience of Oct. 19, 1987, when the stock market dropped by just over 20% in a single day. Attempts to tie the term to the “Black Monday” story...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Opinion: The US stock market looks like it did before most of the previous 13 bear markets -...

Opinion: The US stock market looks like it did before most of the previous 13 bear markets - MarketWatch

NEW HAVEN, Conn. (Project Syndicate) — The U.S. stock market today is characterized by a seemingly unusual combination of very high valuations, following a period of strong earnings growth, and very low volatility.

What do these ostensibly conflicting messages imply about the likelihood that the United States is headed toward a bear market in stocks SPX, -0.30% ?

To answer that question, we must look to past bear markets. And that requires us to define precisely what a bear market entails. The media nowadays delineate a “classic” or “traditional” bear market as a 20% decline in stock prices.

That definition does not appear in any media outlet before the 1990s, and there has been no indication of who established it. It may be rooted in the experience of Oct. 19, 1987, when the stock market dropped by just over 20% in a single day. Attempts to tie the term to the “Black Monday” story...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Opinion: The US stock market looks like it did before most of the previous 13 bear markets -...

Opinion: The US stock market looks like it did before most of the previous 13 bear markets - MarketWatch

NEW HAVEN, Conn. (Project Syndicate) — The U.S. stock market today is characterized by a seemingly unusual combination of very high valuations, following a period of strong earnings growth, and very low volatility.

What do these ostensibly conflicting messages imply about the likelihood that the United States is headed toward a bear market in stocks SPX, -0.30% ?

To answer that question, we must look to past bear markets. And that requires us to define precisely what a bear market entails. The media nowadays delineate a “classic” or “traditional” bear market as a 20% decline in stock prices.

That definition does not appear in any media outlet before the 1990s, and there has been no indication of who established it. It may be rooted in the experience of Oct. 19, 1987, when the stock market dropped by just over 20% in a single day. Attempts to tie the term to the “Black Monday” story...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Opinion: The US stock market looks like it did before most of the previous 13 bear markets -...

Warren Buffett's Vision for the Stock Market in 100 Years? A $1 Million Dow - Inc.com

Warren Buffett is still bullish on the long-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

The billionaire investor said he expects the index to be "over 1 million" in a hundred years, according to Reuters. He was speaking at an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of Forbes magazine.

He added it's not an unreasonable forecast given the index was around 81 a hundred years back.

The Dow closed up by 0.18 percent at 22,370.80 on Tuesday.

Given that, it's worth noting that a value of 1,000,000 in 100 years translates into about a 4 percent compound annual growth rate, which is lower than the average rate stocks have historically grown.

Buffett's comments reflect one of his longstanding beliefs: that over the long term, the stock market news will be good.

Back in October 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis, he explained that thinking in op-ed for The New York Times titled, "Buy American. I...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Warren Buffett's Vision for the Stock Market in 100 Years? A $1 Million Dow - Inc.com

Warren Buffett's Vision for the Stock Market in 100 Years? A $1 Million Dow - Inc.com

Warren Buffett is still bullish on the long-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

The billionaire investor said he expects the index to be "over 1 million" in a hundred years, according to Reuters. He was speaking at an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of Forbes magazine.

He added it's not an unreasonable forecast given the index was around 81 a hundred years back.

The Dow closed up by 0.18 percent at 22,370.80 on Tuesday.

Given that, it's worth noting that a value of 1,000,000 in 100 years translates into about a 4 percent compound annual growth rate, which is lower than the average rate stocks have historically grown.

Buffett's comments reflect one of his longstanding beliefs: that over the long term, the stock market news will be good.

Back in October 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis, he explained that thinking in op-ed for The New York Times titled, "Buy American. I...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Warren Buffett's Vision for the Stock Market in 100 Years? A $1 Million Dow - Inc.com

Warren Buffett's Vision for the Stock Market in 100 Years? A $1 Million Dow - Inc.com

Warren Buffett is still bullish on the long-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

The billionaire investor said he expects the index to be "over 1 million" in a hundred years, according to Reuters. He was speaking at an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of Forbes magazine.

He added it's not an unreasonable forecast given the index was around 81 a hundred years back.

The Dow closed up by 0.18 percent at 22,370.80 on Tuesday.

Given that, it's worth noting that a value of 1,000,000 in 100 years translates into about a 4 percent compound annual growth rate, which is lower than the average rate stocks have historically grown.

Buffett's comments reflect one of his longstanding beliefs: that over the long term, the stock market news will be good.

Back in October 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis, he explained that thinking in op-ed for The New York Times titled, "Buy American. I...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Warren Buffett's Vision for the Stock Market in 100 Years? A $1 Million Dow - Inc.com

Surging stock market powers US wealth to $96.2 trillion - ABC News

A healthy gain in the stock market and steadily increasing home prices boosted Americans' household wealth this spring, a trend that likely adds to the nation's inequality.

The Federal Reserve said Thursday Americans' net worth rose 1.8 percent to $96.2 trillion in the April-June quarter. Stock portfolios and mutual funds jumped $1.1 trillion. Home values climbed $600 billion.

The solid gain in wealth could make many Americans more confident and spend more, which typically fuels economic growth. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

But the increases in wealth aren't widely shared, which many economists worry limits its economic benefit. Wealthier Americans are less likely to spend additional income and wealth gains.

Roughly 10 percent of Americans own 80 percent of the nation's stock market value. And the wealthiest 1 percent held 42 percent of...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Surging stock market powers US wealth to $96.2 trillion - ABC News

Surging stock market powers US wealth to $96.2 trillion - ABC News

A healthy gain in the stock market and steadily increasing home prices boosted Americans' household wealth this spring, a trend that likely adds to the nation's inequality.

The Federal Reserve said Thursday Americans' net worth rose 1.8 percent to $96.2 trillion in the April-June quarter. Stock portfolios and mutual funds jumped $1.1 trillion. Home values climbed $600 billion.

The solid gain in wealth could make many Americans more confident and spend more, which typically fuels economic growth. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

But the increases in wealth aren't widely shared, which many economists worry limits its economic benefit. Wealthier Americans are less likely to spend additional income and wealth gains.

Roughly 10 percent of Americans own 80 percent of the nation's stock market value. And the wealthiest 1 percent held 42 percent of...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Surging stock market powers US wealth to $96.2 trillion - ABC News

Household net worth climbs by $1.7 trillion as stock market rises - MarketWatch

Thanks to stock market and house price gains, household net worth continued to rise in the second quarter.

The net worth of households climbed by $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, on the continued rally in the stock market as well as the continued expansion of house prices.

The Federal Reserve said Thursday that the net worth of households and nonprofits rose by 1.7%, or $1.7 trillion, to $96.2 trillion, as the value of equities rose by $1.1 trillion and the value of real estate rose by about $600 billion.

U.S. stocks have climbed as corporate profits have remained strong at a time when Congress is considering cutting taxes and the White House is streamlining regulations. House prices have boomed on a combination of factors, including constrained supply and a continuing jobs-market recovery.

The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.30%  climbed 2.6% during the second quarter, and has rallied...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Household net worth climbs by $1.7 trillion as stock market rises - MarketWatch

Household net worth climbs by $1.7 trillion as stock market rises - MarketWatch

Thanks to stock market and house price gains, household net worth continued to rise in the second quarter.

The net worth of households climbed by $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, on the continued rally in the stock market as well as the continued expansion of house prices.

The Federal Reserve said Thursday that the net worth of households and nonprofits rose by 1.7%, or $1.7 trillion, to $96.2 trillion, as the value of equities rose by $1.1 trillion and the value of real estate rose by about $600 billion.

U.S. stocks have climbed as corporate profits have remained strong at a time when Congress is considering cutting taxes and the White House is streamlining regulations. House prices have boomed on a combination of factors, including constrained supply and a continuing jobs-market recovery.

The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.30%  climbed 2.6% during the second quarter, and has rallied...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Household net worth climbs by $1.7 trillion as stock market rises - MarketWatch

Man who called S&P 500 to hit 2500, says don't bet against this stock market - MarketWatch

A prominent equity bull, Laszlo Birinyi, who accurately forecast that the S&P 500 would hit 2,500 by September, thinks the stock market has more room to run before 2017 is over.

In an interview with MarketWatch, Birinyi described the Federal Reserve’s plan to continue to increase borrowing costs despite sluggish inflation and unwind its roughly $4 trillion balance sheet, lofty valuations and a number of market bears calling for a large downturn mostly “noise.”

He said the criteria that his investing company looks at to determine when to abandon his bullish views “just aren’t there.”

The 73-year-old president of research and money manager Birinyi Associates Inc., notably points to sentiment, which he believes is still not showing signs of the unabashed degree of enthusiasm that tends to signal a market top.

“We’ve done studies on Wall Street to determine when the Fat Lady is singing,”...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Man who called S&P 500 to hit 2500, says don't bet against this stock market - MarketWatch

Man who called S&P 500 to hit 2500, says don't bet against this stock market - MarketWatch

A prominent equity bull, Laszlo Birinyi, who accurately forecast that the S&P 500 would hit 2,500 by September, thinks the stock market has more room to run before 2017 is over.

In an interview with MarketWatch, Birinyi described the Federal Reserve’s plan to continue to increase borrowing costs despite sluggish inflation and unwind its roughly $4 trillion balance sheet, lofty valuations and a number of market bears calling for a large downturn mostly “noise.”

He said the criteria that his investing company looks at to determine when to abandon his bullish views “just aren’t there.”

The 73-year-old president of research and money manager Birinyi Associates Inc., notably points to sentiment, which he believes is still not showing signs of the unabashed degree of enthusiasm that tends to signal a market top.

“We’ve done studies on Wall Street to determine when the Fat Lady is singing,”...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: Man who called S&P 500 to hit 2500, says don't bet against this stock market - MarketWatch

This chart shows how the stock market is 'smack dab at the heart of bubble territory' - MarketWatch

Robert Shiller’s closely followed “CAPE” ratio, which compares the S&P SPX, -0.30%  to the average annual inflation-adjusted earnings of that index over the prior 10 years, has been signaling a top-heavy stock market for a while now.

See also: Shiller’s latest take on valuations.

But there’s a better way to gauge just how pricey equities have become, according to Meritocracy Capital’s Howard Ma.

While the CAPE ratio has proven to be a reliable predictor of long-term returns, it’s also been widely criticized, Ma explained. One reason is that it’s susceptible to outliers, like those abnormally weak earnings during the global financial crisis.

So Ma is offering what he sees as a more accurate tweak to the formula by using the median instead of the mean. He calls it the “CAPME” ratio and says it’s perhaps more useful because it is not influenced by the outliers in Shiller’s version.

As...


Read full article on News GN StockMarket


Read more: This chart shows how the stock market is 'smack dab at the heart of bubble territory' - MarketWatch

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